Sonys certainly got the money to do it, and their eye-pet shows interest in that direction.
But given how conservative they are in some areas…(ie, pushing 3d tv’s based around Shutter-Glass’s technology and pretending its new)…it feels unlikely.

Still, a major game-maker coming up with a mass-marker AR system/games could be the killer app the industry needs to sale it to the public.
That probably is the best hope for an AR fast-track.

Rather short-sitted of them.
We really should already have mobile phones in glass’s, even without AR at all, theres a lot of practical advantages of being both hands free and having a small display in your field of view. (even a basic, 2d, monochrome one showing the”

I think most companies are rather risk-averse. They’re mostly trying to maintain the status-quo which is why in most areas (especially, bleeding edge), we have to see the market move closer to the technology. I think the stutter-start analogy will work well for the glasses. Look how long it took Toyota to make the hybrid concept work (over ten years). Now everyone thinks “duh!” when they think about hybrid cars, but back then it was considered a huge risk.

Of course, I want to see AR glasses sooner than later, but I’m realistic to the needs. Who knows? Maybe someone will comeout with the Wii gaming of AR glasses and everyone will want one.

But thats partly why I preposed existing protocals like IRC (now) and GW (very soon).I feel even crude (nearest 10-15m) location-based AR on those protocals would still lead to plenty of city games being possible and get a fair number of players interested. I also thought this was pretty achievable today.
Of course, the consortuim may say more on AR platforms at ISMAR09.

“I was in an AR pitch meeting the other week at a very significant media company, and brought up the point that today’s

handheld Smartphones will eventually evolve into tomorrows Smartglasses. My comment was quickly shrugged off as sort of a sci-fi notion that was irrelevant to the business at hand.”

Rather short-sitted of them.
We really should already have mobile phones in glass’s, even without AR at all, theres a lot of practical advantages
of being both hands free and having a small display in your field of view. (even a basic, 2d, monochrome one showing the

number thats calling, for example).

I think too many in the mobile phone industary are far too conservative and always just following the leaders (which are

normaly just following standard miniterisation-and-add-more-power trends).
I do get frustrated as you see all sorts of interesting concept designs from all over the place, but at the end of the day,

we are still left with these small rectanangles we have to get out our pockets.

“Tish: Another area of development that could really kick AR into high gear might be creating augmented reality hotspots”

This is a fantastic idea, but would need some solid applications to work.

The idea of a specific hot-spot area is great, however. As you can not only ensure theres good wifi, but also ensure very tight alignment.
I always felt that to get tight Denno-Coil esq alignment between virtual and physical space, we have to move beyond any sort of GPS, and instead work by aligning the view based on a known point-cloud of the area. (such as what Photosynth can generate). Once a point-cloud is made, the software knows the area fairly accurately, and then all it had to do is align the two. (still fairly hard, but all the data is there for a cm-scale alignment).

Having a hotsport for AR around towns could mean that specific location has had a point cloud made from it looking outwards, and thus within that area the AR alignment is especialy tight and reliable.

I think this would be most likely to happen though after standards are established better. Think about it;
If the applications are about that work “”ok”” and your a starbucks manager thinking about how to get more custom, why wouldnt you ensure your site worked best?
I think the idea of hotspots could take off very well once its possible for small stores and individual to improve the experience themselfs.

“Brian: I go back to “Games and Goals”… If you make environmental and other activist efforts fun and rewarding, more are

likely to be motivated and participate. Can you imagine having a personal “carbon footprint stat” floating over your self

at all times? Or over your home or factory? How would that change your behavior? We all love stats.”

Wonderfull point.

I always thought someone as simply as having a govement-regulated domain (.green, .eco ..whatever) which companys could only get if they were carbon natural. That would encourage a lot of firms to get it purely for the prestige value of it.

But this is even better. Stats floating above buildings would also encourage reducation massively.
As would the ability for consumers to look up information on whatever they are buying by pointing their phone at it. (which is already basicay possible).
Increased information at point of sale will make companys harder to hide what they are doing.

That said though, I’m a great believer in AR being instrictly just about the biggest green step humanity could take by its very natural.

Once we have the “dream” AR solution, I think a lot of physical goods simply stop being usefull.
After all, anything we dont need to touch or feel could be replaced by digital equilivents.
Sure, you still got the HMD and severs….but think of the thousands of objects you could replace?

Digital distribution already gives a mind-blowing enviromental saving rather then buying plastic-shipped discs. Buying a music track on iTunes vs buying a cd. If you think about all the stages nesscery to get that disc to the store, and then to your house. AS well as the production of the disc itself. Compare that too the infinitely-smaller amount of energy needed to download just -your track- from the sever.

Now imagine this saving scaled up for allmost all physical media products. And not just obvious ones either.

I dont think we can even beggin to appriciate the impact this will have.

And lets step into the future further.
What about when AR tech becomes so good we can make anything look like anything else?
This may be 50 years away, but its coming. Its just a logical extrapolation of current technology. Smaller, faster,better.

When everything can look like anything else…what will the impact on soceity be?
Imho, materialism will end within one generation. Fashion and Style become worthless (in monetary terms) and all thats left thats important is functionality.

Sorry to go of on a tagent here, but I see this as being a huge step for humanity. The efficiancy of soceity increase’s, our enviromental impact is drasticaly reduced.
It may seem hyperbole, and at the moment, it is. But its the most likely vision of the future based on current trends.

“Perhaps the holy grail is to use technology to filter things out. AR might become a solution to leading a simpler life, or a perfectly customized life if you want that. Ultimately the control needs to be with the individual. ”

Very wise words for the future.
I too think that AR might make our lifes much more simple in the long run.
Toggleing on and off layers to our enviroment giving us various amounts of information and entertainment….but under it all, when its all off, we might be left with a much more elgant and peacefull real environment.